The innovation towards developing the new product price-performance features and addressing the distribution challenges take up a lot of bandwidth of corporations when designing a ” base of the pyramid ” business model. The silent threats that are looming large on the horizon often do not get due consideration.

The crisis of late 2008 and 2009 is giving early signals that some of the silent threats if not accounted for in the business model at the beginning may throw up not so pleasant surprises. The silent threats of financial crisis , energy and food crisis ,climate change , political interventions when in play have amplified impacts in the lives of low income population and supply chain . This may result in shift of their behaviour in short to medium term and often result in loss of livelihoods. As an impact it may induce fundamental changes in the business model assumptions making it unsustainable in the medium term even though it meets the price-performance features and distribution challenges.

For example in South Africa one of the energy multinationals was running a BoP business model pilot on providing access to safe paraffin ( kerosene) to the low income population. The upward breakout of the crude prices in 2008 and all petro related products made the initial consumer value proposition unsustainable in the medium term .

The same triggers unfolded  a different scenario in Indonesia. The energy crisis in 2008 and escalating prices of kerosene was an affirmation to the international NGOs’ initiative in Jakarta to introduce smokeless stoves and biomass pellets in partnership with an Multinational company . The BoP consumers were able to reduce costs by using this solution and also saved themselves from the harmful health effects of using kerosene and biomass. However the silent threat of political intervention in play in Indonesia unfolded a different scenario from South Africa . Against the backdrop of the presidential election in Indonesia slated to be  in July 2009 , the retail price of Kerosene is being controlled to bring it at par with pre energy crisis days. The consumers of smokeless stove and biomass pellets are finding comfort to go back to their old kersosene usage days . The fundamental assumptions of the business model are being challenged due to one of the silent threats in play .

For any mature business these silent threats exist,  but for Bop business if they come to play the impact may not be limited to delayed financial breakeven but the basic survival of the business may be at stake .

So for business developement team  early consideration of these silent threats relevant to the specific business model and critical analysis is a must. The outcome should then be factored  in creation of strategic options so that the ” base of the pyramid ” business flourish under a wide variety of possible outcomes.